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Sicilian Defense

315 variations · 207M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

49.4%

45%55%
Floor49.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 207M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 207M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#15 of 62
Games in this context
207M
Best context
57.5% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context
40.3% at 2500+ Rapid
Variations measured
315
Average game length
34 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian TrapBest here
1.e4 c5 2.d4 cxd4 3.c3 dxc3 4.Nxc3 Nc6 5.Nf3 e6 6.Bc4 Qc7 7.Qe2 Nf6 8.O-O Ng4
Floor 61.5% · 15K games
62.1%
#2Sicilian Defense: Kveinis Variation
1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 e6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Qb6
Floor 57.9% · 113K games
58.2%
#3Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation
1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 a6 6.Bg5 e6 7.f4 Be7 8.Qf3 h6 9.Bh4 g5
Floor 56.6% · 4.2K games
57.9%
#4Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation
1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 e6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 Qb6
Floor 56.2% · 12K games
57.0%
#5Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation
1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 a6 6.Be2 e6 7.O-O Nbd7
Floor 53.9% · 7.8K games
54.8%
#6Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Larsen Defense
1.e4 c5 2.d4 cxd4 3.c3 dxc3 4.Nxc3 Nc6 5.Nf3 e6 6.Bc4 Qc7 7.Qe2 a6 8.O-O Bd6
Floor 53.5% · 3.9K games
54.8%
#7Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Wing Attack
1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 e6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 a6 5.Nc3 b5
Floor 53.5% · 417K games
53.6%
#8Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation
1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 e6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 a6
Floor 53.2% · 527K games
53.3%
#9Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation
1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 g6
Floor 53.1% · 1.1M games
53.2%
#10Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation
1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 a6 6.Bg5 e6 7.f4 b5
Floor 52.6% · 13K games
53.3%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.4% at 0-999, 42.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (12,075 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (1,309,362 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (1,912,799 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (748,996 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (6,648 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (30,226 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (3,278,731 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (4,609,382 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,537,721 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (28,293 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (55,744 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (6,254,903 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (9,743,271 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (3,045,699 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (90,464 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (82,744 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (9,971,394 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (17,042,872 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (5,101,574 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (243,500 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (70,096 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (13,024,646 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (24,323,117 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6,707,209 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (353,462 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (38,003 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (14,045,725 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (25,882,121 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (6,298,722 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.9% expected score (257,969 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (14,062 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (11,782,426 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (16,142,044 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (3,101,740 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (85,758 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (5,529 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (8,942,478 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (7,080,053 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (833,634 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (15,605 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (880 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (2,393,227 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (749,460 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (44,221 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (2,864 games)

315 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Sicilian Defense: Amazon Attack21K games
66.3%Floor 65.8%
2
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap15K games
62.1%Floor 61.5%
3
Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation11K games
61.8%Floor 61.1%
Sicilian Defense: King David's Opening21K games
60.2%Floor 59.7%
Sicilian Defense: Kveinis Variation113K games
58.2%Floor 57.9%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation4.2K games
57.9%Floor 56.6%
Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation12K games
57.0%Floor 56.2%
Sicilian Defense: Brick Variation19K games
55.5%Floor 54.9%
Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation27K games
54.6%Floor 54.1%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation7.8K games
54.8%Floor 53.9%
Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Vitolins Variation51K games
54.0%Floor 53.6%
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Larsen Defense3.9K games
54.8%Floor 53.5%
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense3.1K games
55.0%Floor 53.5%
Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Wing Attack417K games
53.6%Floor 53.5%
Sicilian Defense: Kronberger Variation32K games
53.8%Floor 53.3%
Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation527K games
53.3%Floor 53.2%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation1.1M games
53.2%Floor 53.1%
Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Knight Variation1.4M games
53.0%Floor 52.9%
Sicilian Defense: Coles Sicilian Gambit6.0K games
54.0%Floor 52.9%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation13K games
53.3%Floor 52.6%
Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation313K games
52.7%Floor 52.5%
Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack192K games
52.7%Floor 52.5%
Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation375K games
52.6%Floor 52.4%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, English Attack, Anti-English65K games
52.8%Floor 52.4%
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted49K games
52.8%Floor 52.4%
Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense475K games
52.4%Floor 52.3%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation1.1M games
52.2%Floor 52.1%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon751K games
52.2%Floor 52.1%
Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation1.3M games
52.1%Floor 52.0%
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Taimanov Formation18K games
52.6%Floor 52.0%
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit81K games
52.3%Floor 52.0%
Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal504K games
52.1%Floor 52.0%
Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, American Attack31K games
52.5%Floor 52.0%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System587K games
52.1%Floor 51.9%
Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation393K games
52.0%Floor 51.9%
Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Exchange Variation9.3K games
52.8%Floor 51.9%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Sosonko Variation9.4K games
52.6%Floor 51.8%
Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation2.8K games
53.3%Floor 51.7%
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line1.1M games
51.8%Floor 51.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation44K games
52.0%Floor 51.6%
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation105K games
51.9%Floor 51.6%
Sicilian Defense: Godiva Variation313K games
51.7%Floor 51.5%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit104K games
51.8%Floor 51.5%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense11K games
52.3%Floor 51.5%
Sicilian Defense: Nyezhmetdinov-Rossolimo Attack, San Francisco Gambit722 games
54.6%Floor 51.5%
Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation134K games
51.7%Floor 51.5%
Sicilian Defense: Myers Attack, with a470K games
51.9%Floor 51.5%
Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation33K games
51.8%Floor 51.4%
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation80K games
51.6%Floor 51.3%
Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation248K games
51.4%Floor 51.3%
Every Sicilian Defense variation, by name315
Analyze Sicilian Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense family scores 49.4% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 49.4% — from 207M Lichess games across 315 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
207M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense win rate?

Across the Sicilian Defense's 315 variations, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 207M rated games from Lichess.

How many Sicilian Defense variations are there?

315 Sicilian Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense perform best?

The Sicilian Defense family performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.9% (4.0M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Sicilian Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.2% in Blitz (107M games) against 49.8% in Rapid (27M games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense?

Sicilian Defense games are 96.0% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Sicilian Defense a good opening family?

The Sicilian Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 47.4% and loses 48.7%. Results differ between its 315 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.