Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation
1.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.5%.
Measured over 1.2K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 7.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.2K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.2K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.0%
- Draws
- 7.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 0-999, 51.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (68 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (32 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (142 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (54 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (46 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (269 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (63 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 62.8% expected score (26 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (289 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (39 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.4% expected score (55 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation scores 50.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.8% and 52.5% — from 1.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation, White wins 46.6%, draws 7.0% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.7% (378 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (807 games) against 51.1% in Rapid (189 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation has a sharpness score of 93.0 (decisive), meaning 93.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 41.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 101 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 44.7%, draws 6.7% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 230 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 378 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 46.4%, draws 8.8% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 357 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 46.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 196 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 807 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 45.9%, draws 10.2% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 189 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Heidenfeld Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 46.6% of its games and loses 46.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.