Lichess2023-09 to 2026-08
It depends on your side and your level. These guides rank openings by their worst case at your own rating and clock, from 3B+ rated Lichess games played September 2023 to August 2026, with the engine’s view of every position beside the result. The worst case is the low end of a figure’s range, not its average.
Source Lichess · played September 2023 to August 2026
A guide makes the choice with you: a shortlist for one side, at one level and clock, with what each line is trying to do, who it suits, where it stops working, and the engine’s view beside the result. It is a decision.
Opening data is the reference the guides are built on: every opening with enough games behind it, at every rating and clock, with the evidence behind each figure. Go there to look something up or to compare openings a guide does not shortlist.
A guide makes a choice: it ranks a shortlist for one side at your rating and clock, says what each line is trying to do, and hands you the position. The opening data is the reference behind it — every opening with enough games behind it, at every rating and clock, there to be looked up and compared.
The one for the side you are choosing for. White picks the first move and gets one list; Black answers it and gets two, replies to 1.e4 and replies to 1.d4.
The same question with the level set low, which these guides answer directly: choose your rating bracket and the ranking follows that level, from the games players at that level actually played. Below 1200 the openings that hold up are the ones whose plans survive a mistake, and the guides print how many games each figure rests on so a thin result is visible as one.
Every figure is an expected score: points per game for your side, counting a draw as half. Lines are ranked by their Worst case at the rating and clock you select, not by their average, because a steady result is worth more to a player than a high average that swings. Worst case is the worst score a line still clears, 90% confident.