Explore opening families ranked by expected score. Filter by side to see what you can play as White or Black.
Source Lichess·Games 2.1B·Range 2023-12 to 2025-11·Updated January 2026
Deep dives into game patterns and outcomes
Openings are side-specific. So are the expected scores.
Results differ by side and by rating bracket—use the filters below to see what actually wins in your games.
56 families ranked by White expected score
These are opening families. Some variations require opponent cooperation — click into any opening to see the full breakdown.
56 families
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Every opening family in the dataset, A–Z. Each page ranks the family's variations by expected score with rating and time-control breakdowns.
Openings tracked individually, outside the family groupings above.
TrueElo analyzed 2.1B rated Lichess games (2023-12 to 2025-11) across 131 opening families. Rank openings from your perspective (playing White or playing Black), then break it down by rating bracket and time control. Every win/draw/loss estimate includes a 90% Bayesian credible interval and sample size.
All statistics are derived from 2.1B rated games from Lichess, covering 131 unique openings across 9 rating brackets and 6 time controls.
We use Bayesian statistics with a 3-outcome model (white win / draw / black win). Each displayed 90% confidence interval comes from the marginal distribution of that outcome—more games = narrower intervals = more reliable estimates.
Our analysis filters for quality: games are bucketed by White’s rating bracket, filtered to opponents within 200 Elo, and include all games with at least 2 moves. This reduces noise from mismatches while including short decisive games like early checkmates and resignations.
Statistics are regenerated periodically from the latest Lichess public database. Check the "Last Updated" date on each page for the data freshness.