Ruy Lopez

180 variations · 39M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Ruy Lopez gives White a 52.9% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 5.7%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 52.9%Aggregated from 180 variations
0%52.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 52.9%
ContextOverall · n=39M
Outcome Distribution
50.5%4.9%44.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Bb5
Ruy Lopez
Variations180
Games (Context)39M
Avg Length34 moves
Draw Rate4.9%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Ruy Lopez expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Ruy Lopez family has a 52.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 52.9%), aggregated from 180 variations and 39M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 30%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.1% win rate (1,760,090 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.4% win rate (4,228,392 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.0% win rate (6,721,585 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.8% win rate (7,893,081 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.8% win rate (7,162,385 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.6% win rate (5,597,111 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.2% win rate (3,192,397 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.8% win rate (1,566,215 games)
  • 2500+: 29.5% win rate (530,332 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (51%), worst in UltraBullet (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.4% win rate (9,015 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (8,248,383 games)
  • Blitz: 50.4% win rate (21,389,135 games)
  • Rapid: 51.0% win rate (8,640,225 games)
  • Classical: 51.3% win rate (364,830 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (999 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (473,101 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (881,956 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (400,145 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (3,889 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (2,124 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (983,102 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (2,325,301 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (902,630 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (15,235 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (2,300 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,322,314 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (3,710,041 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,637,899 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (49,031 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (2,193 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,448,056 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (4,283,755 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (2,050,594 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (108,483 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (701 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,307,040 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (3,970,827 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (1,777,764 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (106,053 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (304 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,081,061 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (3,267,475 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (1,189,933 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (58,338 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (287 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (775,427 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,885,371 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (515,233 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (16,079 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (92 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (562,928 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (863,119 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (136,889 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (3,187 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (295,354 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (201,290 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (29,138 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (4,535 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (180)

1
Ruy Lopez: Open, Skipworth Gambit13K games
66.4%
2
Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation11K games
62.8%
3
Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit9.2K games
61.9%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred5.5K games
60.8%
Ruy Lopez: Pollock Defense25K games
59.7%
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense Deferred, Lipnitsky Variation1.1K games
61.2%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation660K games
58.2%
Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation17K games
58.7%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation65K games
58.3%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense108K games
58.0%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit490K games
57.6%
Ruy Lopez: Brix Variation1.9K games
59.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation3.3K games
58.7%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation22K games
57.4%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Tarrasch Trap8.5K games
57.6%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit8.9K games
57.3%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation348K games
56.4%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer926 games
58.8%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation1.0M games
56.1%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Smyslov Defense24K games
56.4%
Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit181K games
56.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Nyholm Attack17K games
56.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation4.0K games
56.8%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation272K games
55.6%
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit10K games
56.2%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation54K games
55.6%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation18K games
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack527 games
58.6%
Ruy Lopez: Rotary-Albany Gambit48K games
55.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation245 games
60.2%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Riga Variation15K games
55.4%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Defense, Boden Variation14K games
55.3%
Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation529K games
54.6%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation49K games
54.9%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Borisenko Variation7.3K games
55.5%
Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation121K games
54.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation41K games
54.8%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted617K games
54.5%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Wormald Attack61K games
54.5%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Worrall Attack, Castling Line7.4K games
55.2%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Worrall Attack, Delayed Castling Line4.5K games
55.3%
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Nimzowitsch Attack31K games
54.6%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Delayed Exchange24K games
54.6%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit64K games
54.4%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense970K games
54.1%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Wing Attack7.3K games
54.8%
Ruy Lopez1.9M games
53.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit3.1K games
55.2%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred170K games
53.8%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System39K games
54.1%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System8.1K games
54.5%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation1.1M games
53.7%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation384K games
53.7%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense8.8K games
54.4%
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense7.8M games
53.5%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Yates Variation39K games
54.0%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation278K games
53.7%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation84K games
53.8%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense684K games
53.6%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Anderssen Variation814K games
53.6%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Karpov Gambit260 games
58.4%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Worrall Attack1.4K games
55.5%
Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation87K games
53.5%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall62K games
53.6%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation294K games
53.3%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Martinez Variation76K games
53.5%
Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred16K games
53.7%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Beverwijk Variation833K games
53.2%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation392K games
53.2%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense88K games
53.3%
Ruy Lopez: Brentano Gambit4.3K games
54.2%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation6.7K games
54.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense4.3M games
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation4.6K games
54.0%
Ruy Lopez: Open130K games
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Closed261K games
52.9%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack3.8K games
53.8%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense827K games
52.5%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation5.9K games
53.5%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation50K games
52.7%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation63K games
52.7%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation747 games
55.3%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred298K games
52.3%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Center Attack22K games
52.8%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation17K games
52.7%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation30K games
52.6%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack72K games
52.3%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense2.0M games
52.0%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation140K games
52.1%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation2.0M games
51.8%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Suetin Variation1.2K games
53.8%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense3.8K games
52.9%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation2.8K games
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Smyslov-Breyer-Zaitsev Hybrid1.0K games
53.8%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit9.5K games
52.1%
Ruy Lopez: Schliemann Defense, Dyckhoff Variation142K games
51.5%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Charousek Variation18K games
51.8%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation2.2K games
52.9%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation7.0K games
52.1%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation27K games
51.6%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid28K games
51.5%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation36K games
51.1%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense39K games
51.1%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tartakower Variation1.9K games
52.6%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation3.4M games
50.6%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Quiet Variation2.9K games
52.1%
Ruy Lopez: Fianchetto Defense127K games
50.7%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation31K games
50.9%
Ruy Lopez: Fianchetto Defense, Kevitz Gambit433 games
54.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense75K games
50.5%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Rossolimo Defense221 games
55.7%
Ruy Lopez: Schliemann Defense, Schönemann Attack57K games
50.5%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation1.7M games
50.1%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred12K games
50.8%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Morphy Attack22K games
50.7%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation22K games
50.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Westerinen Line1.2K games
52.3%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense, Main Line1.5K games
52.0%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Re3 Variation1.4K games
52.1%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation25K games
50.3%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Duras Variation3.0K games
51.3%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Balla Variation618 games
53.1%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense5.6K games
50.8%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation16K games
50.3%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Lutikov Variation1.1K games
52.1%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation27K games
50.1%
Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation18K games
50.2%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred32K games
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation41K games
49.7%
Ruy Lopez: Schliemann Defense, Tartakower Variation36K games
49.8%
Ruy Lopez: Schliemann Defense338K games
49.4%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation3.2K games
50.6%
Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation7.2K games
50.1%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Cordel Gambit13K games
49.7%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Tartakower Gambit314 games
53.5%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Yates Variation, Short Attack530 games
52.4%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation4.0K games
50.1%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Defense, Zaitsev Variation120 games
56.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation5.1K games
50.0%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit9.0K games
49.4%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation14K games
49.3%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Trajkovic Counterattack9.1K games
49.3%
Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation5.6K games
49.4%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System8.3K games
49.0%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation3.0K games
49.4%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred8.5K games
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit67K games
48.1%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Schlechter Defense253 games
50.8%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Center Attack, Basque Gambit243 games
52.9%
Ruy Lopez: Schliemann Defense, Classical Variation7.1K games
48.5%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall18K games
47.8%
Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation210 games
52.9%
Ruy Lopez: Schliemann Defense, Exchange Variation266K games
46.7%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit723 games
49.1%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation2.2K games
47.7%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation39K games
46.4%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Friess Attack100 games
54.0%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line5.8K games
46.8%
Ruy Lopez: Schliemann Defense, Jaenisch Gambit Accepted225K games
45.8%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line13K games
46.2%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Rosen Attack10K games
46.1%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Malkin Variation290 games
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation24K games
45.5%
Ruy Lopez: Wormald Attack, Grünfeld Variation275 games
49.8%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation603 games
47.0%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Defense, Benelux Variation17K games
45.0%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Richter Variation487 games
48.1%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation148 games
50.7%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line58K games
43.7%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Knorre Variation252 games
48.4%
Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit1.4K games
45.1%
Ruy Lopez: Schliemann Defense, Möhring Variation2.6K games
42.6%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Dilworth Variation3.1K games
41.5%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line13K games
38.6%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation148 games
44.3%
Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack15K games
38.3%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Trap11K games
36.4%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack21K games
36.0%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation13K games
33.5%
Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap25K games
28.4%
Analyze Ruy Lopez PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez win rate?

The Ruy Lopez family has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) win rate for white, aggregated from 180 variations and 39M rated games from Lichess.

How many Ruy Lopez variations are there?

This analysis covers 180 Ruy Lopez variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez perform best?

The Ruy Lopez family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (4.2M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Ruy Lopez better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (51.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.4%) by 3.9% across all Ruy Lopez variations.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez?

Ruy Lopez games are 95.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Ruy Lopez a good opening family?

The Ruy Lopez family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 180 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.