What is the Ruy Lopez expected score for White?
Overall, the Ruy Lopez family has a 52.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 52.9%), aggregated from 180 variations and 39M Lichess games.
180 variations · 39M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Ruy Lopez gives White a 52.9% expected score — a strong opening choice.
With a minimum advantage of 5.7%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.
Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
Overall, the Ruy Lopez family has a 52.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 52.9%), aggregated from 180 variations and 39M Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 50% → 30%
Best in Classical (51%), worst in UltraBullet (47%)
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
The Ruy Lopez family has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) win rate for white, aggregated from 180 variations and 39M rated games from Lichess.
This analysis covers 180 Ruy Lopez variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
The Ruy Lopez family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (4.2M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Classical (51.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.4%) by 3.9% across all Ruy Lopez variations.
Ruy Lopez games are 95.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
The Ruy Lopez family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 180 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.