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Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack

72K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.8%

40%55%
Floor47.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.1%.

Measured over 72K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 6.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 72K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
72K
Best context
53.0% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Worst context
45.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
93.9%
Draws
6.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −3.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.1% at 0-999, 43.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (78 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (332 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (281 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (837 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (201 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (1,550 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (2,370 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (610 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (3,081 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (6,616 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,248 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (79 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (4,483 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (14,667 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (2,628 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (118 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (4,374 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (13,466 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (2,822 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (85 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (2,539 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (5,379 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (1,061 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (952 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (620 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (112 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Continuations (7)
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line
38.8%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation
28.6%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack
34.3%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line
36.2%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation
31.8%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Re3 Variation
45.6%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation
16.6%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack scores 47.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 48.1% — from 72K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
72K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Black wins 44.7%, draws 6.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 72K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.6% (22K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.7% in Blitz (44K games) against 49.2% in Rapid (8.7K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 129 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.4%, draws 1.7% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 662 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.1%, draws 7.7% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 31.9%, draws 28.1% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 48 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.5%, draws 6.3% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 44K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.2%, draws 8.0% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 44.6%, draws 14.2% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 347 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.7% of its games and loses 49.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.