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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack

72K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.8%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.1%Based on 72K games
0%47.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.1%
Outcome Distribution
44.7%6.1%49.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...d5
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack
Analyzen=72K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.1%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 47.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 48.1%), based on 72K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -3.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 32%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.9% win rate (129 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.4% win rate (662 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.2% win rate (1,794 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.5% win rate (4,562 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.9% win rate (11,024 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.8% win rate (21,896 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.1% win rate (20,747 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.1% win rate (8,994 games)
  • 2500+: 31.9% win rate (1,700 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Blitz (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 45.0% win rate (18,143 games)
  • Blitz: 44.5% win rate (44,274 games)
  • Rapid: 45.2% win rate (8,743 games)
  • Classical: 44.6% win rate (347 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (78 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (332 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (281 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (837 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (201 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (1,550 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (2,370 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (610 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (3,081 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (6,616 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,248 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (79 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (4,483 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (14,667 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (2,628 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (118 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (4,374 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (13,466 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (2,822 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (85 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (2,539 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (5,379 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (1,061 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (952 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (620 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (112 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Continuations (7)
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line
38.8%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation
28.6%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack
34.3%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line
36.2%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation
31.8%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Re3 Variation
45.6%
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation
16.6%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 72K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.3% win rate for white (9.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.4%) outperforms Classical (41.2%) by 9.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 48.7% (90% CI: 41.5%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 129 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 50.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 662 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 40.1% (90% CI: 38.1%-42.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 48 moves with a 28.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.0%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.6%) win rate for white (44K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.8%) win rate for white (8.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack has a 41.2% (90% CI: 36.9%-45.5%) win rate for white (347 Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.2%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack is statistically balanced with a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.