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Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation

13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score66.5%Range (90% confident): 65.8% – 67.2%Based on 13K games
0%66.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 65.8% – 67.2%
Outcome Distribution
64.8%3.4%31.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...e4
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation
Analyzen=13K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a 66.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 65.8% and 67.2%), based on 13K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +35.5% · Breakpoint: 2500+

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (6 games)
  • 1200-1399: 73.6% win rate (59 games)
  • 1400-1599: 67.8% win rate (303 games)
  • 1600-1799: 69.3% win rate (1,298 games)
  • 1800-1999: 68.6% win rate (3,663 games)
  • 2000-2199: 64.0% win rate (4,822 games)
  • 2200-2499: 58.7% win rate (2,592 games)
  • 2500+: 51.2% win rate (142 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (65%), worst in Classical (49%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 65.1% win rate (3,135 games)
  • Blitz: 64.6% win rate (8,161 games)
  • Rapid: 65.3% win rate (1,550 games)
  • Classical: 49.4% win rate (40 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 68.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (76 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 71.8% expected score (207 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 70.6% expected score (384 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 69.9% expected score (749 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (161 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 67.6% expected score (711 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 70.5% expected score (2,372 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 71.5% expected score (563 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 66.3% expected score (988 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 65.3% expected score (3,268 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 67.9% expected score (548 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 63.2% expected score (852 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (1,490 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (250 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (100 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a 31.8% (90% CI: 31.1%-32.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 44.3% win rate for white (142 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (33.2%) outperforms Rapid (29.4%) by 3.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a 30.0% (90% CI: 25.8%-34.4%) win rate for white, based on 303 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a 28.3% (90% CI: 26.2%-30.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a 28.6% (90% CI: 27.4%-29.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a 32.4% (90% CI: 31.3%-33.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a 36.6% (90% CI: 35.1%-38.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 37.5%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 142 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a 33.2% (90% CI: 31.9%-34.6%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a 31.7% (90% CI: 30.9%-32.5%) win rate for white (8.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation has a 29.4% (90% CI: 27.5%-31.3%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Steiner Variation is slightly favors black with a 31.8% (90% CI: 31.1%-32.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.