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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense

4.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.1%Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 47.1%Based on 4.3M games
0%47.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 47.1%
Outcome Distribution
44.0%6.1%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.O-O
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
Analyzen=4.3M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.1%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 47.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 47.1%), based on 4.3M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 11%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.3% win rate (337,165 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.5% win rate (713,120 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.9% win rate (899,301 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.4% win rate (811,236 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.1% win rate (591,422 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.5% win rate (416,618 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.0% win rate (248,043 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.8% win rate (132,565 games)
  • 2500+: 10.7% win rate (116,642 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.7% win rate (2,622 games)
  • Bullet: 44.0% win rate (1,115,408 games)
  • Blitz: 43.9% win rate (2,149,009 games)
  • Rapid: 44.1% win rate (956,753 games)
  • Classical: 42.8% win rate (42,320 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (313 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (90,207 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (166,176 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (79,716 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (753 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (646 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (169,422 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (372,636 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (167,745 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (2,671 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (721 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (195,741 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (452,321 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (241,818 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (8,700 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (608 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (189,533 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (393,370 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (213,590 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (14,135 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (183 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (155,159 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (293,921 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (132,479 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (9,680 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (63 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (114,525 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (225,308 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (72,499 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (4,223 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (55 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (77,151 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (135,313 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (34,422 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (1,102 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (57,982 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (63,574 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (10,712 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (267 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (65,688 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (46,390 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (3,772 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (789 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Continuations (10)
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense
51.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Beverwijk Variation
51.4%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted
46.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense
39.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation
52.1%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation
47.8%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation
47.8%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation
49.5%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation
44.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (713K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.1%) by 3.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 337K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 713K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 899K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 811K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 591K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 417K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 248K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 133K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 14.1% (90% CI: 13.9%-14.2%) win rate for white, based on 117K Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 75.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.5%-48.7%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.2%) win rate for white (1.1M Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate for white (2.1M Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.8%) win rate for white (957K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.6%) win rate for white (42K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense is statistically favors white with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.