Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
3.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 3.4M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.4M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.4M
- Best context
- 53.0% at 1000-1199 Classical
- Worst context
- 38.3% at 2000-2199 Classical
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.8% at 0-999, 41.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.0% expected score (172 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (47,077 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (71,550 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (33,500 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (264 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (356 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (100,698 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (190,062 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (74,983 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (1,125 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.8% expected score (340 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (144,544 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (310,765 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (127,333 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (3,687 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (323 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (165,948 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (375,211 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (153,059 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (6,805 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (94 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (158,347 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (370,288 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (129,670 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (6,589 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (30 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (135,456 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (325,141 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (88,893 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (3,491 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.5% expected score (26 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (96,182 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (153,477 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (32,335 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (624 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (52,749 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (35,867 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (3,975 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.1% expected score (42 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (9,268 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (1,747 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (75 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation scores 49.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.4% and 49.5% — from 3.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 3.4M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.3% (153K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.4% in Blitz (1.8M games) against 49.2% in Rapid (644K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 153K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 367K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 587K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 701K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 665K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 553K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 283K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 93K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.2%, draws 6.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 56.5%, draws 1.4% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 910K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 1.8M Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 644K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.5% of its games and loses 48.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.