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Ruy Lopez

180 variations · 39M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

52.9%

45%60%
Floor52.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 39M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 39M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
#13 of 56
Games in this context
39M
Best context
58.4% at 2000-2199 Classical
Worst context
43.8% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Variations measured
180
Average game length
34 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

White · Overall
#1Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie VariationBest here
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 a6 4.Ba4 Nf6 5.d4
Floor 58.0% · 65K games
58.3%
#2Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 Nf6 4.O-O Bc5 5.c3
Floor 57.5% · 490K games
57.6%
#3Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 a6 4.Ba4 b5 5.Bb3 Na5 6.Bxf7+
Floor 56.5% · 8.9K games
57.3%
#4Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 a6 4.Ba4 Nf6 5.O-O Be7 6.Re1 b5 7.Bb3 d6 8.c3 O-O 9.h3 Nb8 10.d4
Floor 56.2% · 926 games
58.8%
#5Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Nyholm Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 Nf6 4.d4 exd4 5.O-O
Floor 55.6% · 17K games
56.2%
#6Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 Nf6 4.O-O d6 5.d4 Bd7 6.Nc3 Be7 7.Bxc6
Floor 55.6% · 4.0K games
56.8%
#7Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 d6 4.d4 exd4 5.O-O
Floor 55.4% · 10K games
56.2%
#8Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 a6 4.Ba4 Nf6 5.O-O Nxe4 6.d4 b5 7.Bb3 d5 8.dxe5 Be6 9.Nbd2
Floor 55.3% · 18K games
55.9%
#9Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 a6 4.Ba4 Nf6 5.O-O Nxe4 6.d4 b5 7.Bb3 d5 8.dxe5 Be6 9.c3 Bc5 10.Qd3
Floor 55.2% · 527 games
58.6%
#10Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 a6 4.Ba4 Nf6 5.O-O Be7 6.Re1 b5 7.Bb3 O-O 8.d3 d6 9.c3
Floor 54.5% · 49K games
54.9%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.5% at 0-999, 53.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (999 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (473,101 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (881,956 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (400,145 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (3,889 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (2,124 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (983,102 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (2,325,301 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (902,630 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (15,235 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (2,300 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,322,314 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (3,710,041 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,637,899 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (49,031 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (2,193 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,448,056 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (4,283,755 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (2,050,594 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (108,483 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (701 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,307,040 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (3,970,827 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (1,777,764 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (106,053 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (304 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,081,061 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (3,267,475 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (1,189,933 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (58,338 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (287 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (775,427 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,885,371 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (515,233 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (16,079 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (92 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (562,928 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (863,119 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (136,889 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (3,187 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (295,354 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (201,290 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (29,138 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (4,535 games)

180 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Ruy Lopez: Open, Skipworth Gambit13K games
66.4%Floor 65.7%
2
Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation11K games
62.8%Floor 62.1%
3
Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit9.2K games
61.9%Floor 61.0%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred5.5K games
60.8%Floor 59.7%
Ruy Lopez: Pollock Defense25K games
59.7%Floor 59.2%
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense Deferred, Lipnitsky Variation1.1K games
61.2%Floor 58.8%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation660K games
58.2%Floor 58.1%
Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation17K games
58.7%Floor 58.1%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation65K games
58.3%Floor 58.0%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense108K games
58.0%Floor 57.8%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit490K games
57.6%Floor 57.5%
Ruy Lopez: Brix Variation1.9K games
59.2%Floor 57.4%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation3.3K games
58.7%Floor 57.3%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation22K games
57.4%Floor 56.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Tarrasch Trap8.5K games
57.6%Floor 56.7%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit8.9K games
57.3%Floor 56.5%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation348K games
56.4%Floor 56.3%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer926 games
58.8%Floor 56.2%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation1.0M games
56.1%Floor 56.0%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Smyslov Defense24K games
56.4%Floor 55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit181K games
56.0%Floor 55.8%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Nyholm Attack17K games
56.2%Floor 55.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation4.0K games
56.8%Floor 55.6%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation272K games
55.6%Floor 55.5%
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit10K games
56.2%Floor 55.4%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation54K games
55.6%Floor 55.3%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation18K games
55.9%Floor 55.3%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack527 games
58.6%Floor 55.2%
Ruy Lopez: Rotary-Albany Gambit48K games
55.6%Floor 55.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation245 games
60.2%Floor 55.1%
Ruy Lopez: Open, Riga Variation15K games
55.4%Floor 54.8%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Defense, Boden Variation14K games
55.3%Floor 54.6%
Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation529K games
54.6%Floor 54.5%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation49K games
54.9%Floor 54.5%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Borisenko Variation7.3K games
55.5%Floor 54.5%
Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation121K games
54.6%Floor 54.4%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation41K games
54.8%Floor 54.4%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted617K games
54.5%Floor 54.4%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Wormald Attack61K games
54.5%Floor 54.2%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Worrall Attack, Castling Line7.4K games
55.2%Floor 54.2%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Worrall Attack, Delayed Castling Line4.5K games
55.3%Floor 54.1%
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Nimzowitsch Attack31K games
54.6%Floor 54.1%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Delayed Exchange24K games
54.6%Floor 54.1%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit64K games
54.4%Floor 54.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense970K games
54.1%Floor 54.0%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Wing Attack7.3K games
54.8%Floor 53.9%
Ruy Lopez1.9M games
53.9%Floor 53.8%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit3.1K games
55.2%Floor 53.7%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred170K games
53.8%Floor 53.7%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System39K games
54.1%Floor 53.6%
Every Ruy Lopez variation, by name180
Analyze Ruy Lopez PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez family scores 52.9% for White — we are 90% confident it is 52.9% — from 39M Lichess games across 180 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
39M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez win rate?

Across the Ruy Lopez's 180 variations, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 39M rated games from Lichess.

How many Ruy Lopez variations are there?

180 Ruy Lopez variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez perform best?

The Ruy Lopez family performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 53.3% (4.2M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Ruy Lopez better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ruy Lopez scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (21M games) against 53.6% in Rapid (8.6M games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez?

Ruy Lopez games are 95.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Ruy Lopez a good opening family?

The Ruy Lopez family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 50.5% and loses 44.7%. Results differ between its 180 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.