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Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit

10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

56.2%

45%60%
Floor55.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.0%.

Measured over 10K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
10K
Best context
62.9% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Worst context
54.6% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +13.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · Rapid best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 47.0%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 33.2% expected score (37 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (131 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (134 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 62.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (291 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (411 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (138 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (330 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (955 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 64.6% expected score (328 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (527 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (1,448 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 62.9% expected score (553 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (489 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (1,908 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (631 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (333 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (877 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (275 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (245 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (152 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 69.7% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit scores 56.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.4% and 57.0% — from 10K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
10K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit, White wins 54.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 10K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 60.4% (449 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 56.2% in Blitz (5.9K games) against 60.5% in Rapid (2.0K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 309 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.9%, draws 1.8% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 847 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 55.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 55.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 55.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 57.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 36.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.4%. It rests on 449 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 54.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 58.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 37.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.5%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 54.2% of its games and loses 41.9%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.