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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense

7.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.5%Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 46.5%Based on 7.8M games
0%46.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 46.5%
Outcome Distribution
44.2%4.6%51.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d6
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
Analyzen=7.8M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 46.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.5% and 46.5%), based on 7.8M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...d6 · Black wins: 44.2% · n=7.5M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.8% win rate (211,378 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.9% win rate (700,683 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.4% win rate (1,452,107 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.8% win rate (2,028,324 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.7% win rate (1,854,641 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.2% win rate (1,133,347 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.5% win rate (362,243 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.7% win rate (72,339 games)
  • 2500+: 38.7% win rate (6,066 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.4% win rate (1,873 games)
  • Bullet: 46.0% win rate (1,590,027 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (4,498,577 games)
  • Rapid: 43.2% win rate (1,672,633 games)
  • Classical: 41.7% win rate (58,018 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (200 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (77,265 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (100,472 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (33,135 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (306 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (394 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (201,914 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (395,478 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (101,529 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (1,368 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (473 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (317,738 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (862,505 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (265,911 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (5,480 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (499 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (354,611 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,195,748 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (459,733 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (17,733 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (180 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (294,962 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (1,076,184 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (461,862 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (21,453 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (70 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (197,940 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (649,863 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (275,164 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.9% expected score (10,310 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.7% expected score (45 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (99,067 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (192,702 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (69,112 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.2% expected score (1,317 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (41,175 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (25,000 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (6,102 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.0% expected score (51 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (5,355 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (625 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.0% expected score (85 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Continuations (2)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Nimzowitsch Attack
51.7%
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense, Center Gambit
54.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.8M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.6% win rate for white (72K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (52.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.2%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 211K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 701K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.0M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.9M Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.5%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.1%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 362K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.3%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 72K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.3%-48.1%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.0%) win rate for white (1.6M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.2%) win rate for white (4.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.4%) win rate for white (1.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.4%) win rate for white (58K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.