What is Black’s best reply to each opening?
Black has a counter in 75 of 200 positions.
every level and clock · 139M games
Edge is Black’s Edge at worst: how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident. At +0.5% or above Black is favoured, below −0.5% White is, and between the two the line is level.
1.e4 Openings
1461.d4 Openings
51Flank Openings
3Click any card to see detailed stats, the board position, and copy the line.
- Move 4 onward, through the rest of the opening
- The engine's move beside the one that actually wins at your level
- A place to keep the lines that work, and drill them
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Methodology
Black has a counter in 75 of 200 positions. Each listed reply reports Black’s win rate, draw rate and loss rate. Scope: Black’s best third-move replies, every rating and clock. Sample: 138,696,219 games behind the listed replies. Rated Lichess games played September 2023 to August 2026. TrueElo analysis of Lichess data.
The bands contain 75 counters where Black is favoured, 12 level lines and 113 equalizers where White keeps an edge and this is Black’s best reply. These are selected replies, not the full corpus.
When citing manually, include the source URL and your access date.
https://trueelo.app/stats/countersHow the figures are made
- How to read this page
- Edge is Black’s Edge at worst: above zero, Black wins more than it loses even on a bad day. A counter is a reply whose Edge is at +0.5% or above, printed in green; an equalizer is below −0.5%, in red, where White keeps an edge and this is Black’s best reply; between the two the line is level.
- Whose games these are
- 3B+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-09 to 2026-08). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt September 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this the Engine Move?
No. It is what happened in 139M rated games across 200 positions: what tends to score best for Black here, not what perfect play would choose.
Why focus on Black’s move 3 (3...)?
Move 3 is an early decision point where many openings branch. Our 200 positions include 146 against 1.e4, 51 against 1.d4, and 3 against flank openings.
What does Win/Draw/Loss mean on this page?
From Black’s side, because Black is the one choosing the third move: Win means Black won and Loss means White did. Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack after 3...Bg4, for example, shows 67.7% wins for Black.
How do you avoid transposition mix-ups?
Each row is one position, reached by one exact move order, rather than an opening name that several move orders share. Two routes to the same name stay two rows.
How much should I trust a line here?
Look at how many games sit behind it. Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has the most, at 14M games; a line near the bottom of the list rests on far fewer, and its number moves more.
Why does the same opening name show up multiple times?
Because each row is a position, not a name. The same named opening is reached by different move orders, and the results of one are not the results of another.
What does "Edge" mean on this page?
Edge is Black’s Edge at worst: above zero, Black wins more than it loses even on a bad day. Here it runs from -24.9 (Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System) to +35.2 (Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack), averaging −1.3 across all 200 positions.
Can the best counter change "at your level"?
Yes. These figures count every rating together, so to see what a counter scores at your level and clock, load the line in the analyzer, which reads every move at your rating.
Can the best counter change by time control?
It can. These figures blend every time control, so check a counter line in the analyzer with your time control selected before committing it to your repertoire.
What if the top two moves have similar Edge?
Take the one with more games behind it. Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has the most on this page, at 14M games, and a figure off that many barely moves.
How do I beat a specific opening (e.g., the London System)?
Search the opening name, then play the 3... response with the highest Edge and plenty of games behind it. Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack shows 3...Bg4 at +35.2% Edge off 2.6K games.
Is this only for Black?
This page covers 200 third-move replies for Black. For move-by-move recommendations for either side, use the analyzer and the per-opening stats pages.
Can I use this to build an opening repertoire?
Yes, for the third move: pick your 3... responses from these 200 positions, where 75 (37.5%) are counters with Black favoured, 12 are level lines and 113 are equalizers where White keeps an edge and this is Black’s best reply. Then take each line into the analyzer to build the moves that follow.
Can I share a link to this page?
Yes, and whoever opens it sees the same figures, because this page counts every rating and clock together. Only the analyzer links carry the rating and clock you have set. To share one line, open its full opening stats and send that page.
Where does the data come from?
From 3B+ games rated on Lichess (2023-09 to 2026-08). Every row says how many games sit behind it, so a move off a few hundred games and one off a few hundred thousand can be read against each other.
How often is this updated?
The figures were last rebuilt September 2026, and the date at the top says so.
Does this replace opening theory?
No. It is a scoreboard of 139M real games, not a proof that a move is correct, so use it to choose moves that score and use theory or an engine to ask whether a line holds up.
What if my opening isn't listed?
We cover 200 positions: 146 against 1.e4, 51 against 1.d4 and 3 against flank openings, so try a broader name or the move order itself. If it is still missing, too few games reached it for a comparison to hold.