Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation
148 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 62.3%.
Measured over 148 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 10.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 148 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 148
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 89.6%
- Draws
- 10.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 1400-1599, 50.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1800-1999 | — | — | — | ||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | — | ||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 67.8% expected score (35 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (86 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation scores 55.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 62.3% — from 148 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 148+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation, Black wins 50.5%, draws 10.4% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 148 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 52.6% (96 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation has a sharpness score of 89.6 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 53.2%, draws 10.0% and loses 36.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 133 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.5% of its games and loses 39.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.