Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation
210 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.8%.
Measured over 210 games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 8.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 210 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 210
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.3%
- Draws
- 8.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.7% at 1000-1199, 21.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | ||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (65 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation scores 47.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.6% and 52.8% — from 210 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 210+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation, Black wins 42.8%, draws 8.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 210 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 47.5% (78 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation has a sharpness score of 91.3 (decisive), meaning 91.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.4%, draws 10.0% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 134 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.8% of its games and loses 48.5%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.