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Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation

140K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.9%Range (90% confident): 47.7% – 48.2%Based on 140K games
0%47.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.7% – 48.2%
Outcome Distribution
44.8%6.2%49.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...f6
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation
Analyzen=140K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.2%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 47.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.7% and 48.2%), based on 140K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.3% win rate (3,209 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.1% win rate (8,437 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.3% win rate (12,138 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.1% win rate (14,631 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.9% win rate (19,553 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.2% win rate (28,048 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.8% win rate (27,598 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.6% win rate (22,161 games)
  • 2500+: 35.7% win rate (3,945 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.7% win rate (22 games)
  • Bullet: 45.5% win rate (37,271 games)
  • Blitz: 44.4% win rate (81,938 games)
  • Rapid: 45.2% win rate (19,710 games)
  • Classical: 46.8% win rate (779 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (949 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (1,696 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (559 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (2,117 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (4,649 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (1,641 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (2,854 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (6,454 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (2,755 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (72 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (3,818 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (7,353 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (3,279 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (177 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (5,340 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (11,031 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (2,978 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (204 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (6,658 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (17,477 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (3,724 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (186 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (5,624 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (18,634 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (3,259 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (74 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (7,657 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (13,044 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (1,430 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 25.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (2,254 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (1,600 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 140K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (3.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.1%) outperforms Classical (44.9%) by 5.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 11.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.5%) win rate for white (37K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.0%) win rate for white (82K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.7%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 42.0%-47.8%) win rate for white (779 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.