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Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line

13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

38.6%

30%55%
Floor37.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 39.3%.

Measured over 13K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 13K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
13K
Best context
49.1% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
31.7% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.1%
Draws
4.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +6.2% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.9% at 0-999, 61.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 17.5% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.7% expected score (110 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (132 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 34.8% expected score (288 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 33.3% expected score (560 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (99 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (539 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 31.7% expected score (1,538 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.4% expected score (285 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 37.4% expected score (560 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 35.9% expected score (2,714 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 34.4% expected score (798 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 28.4% expected score (54 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (533 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (2,116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.5% expected score (710 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (449 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (923 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (292 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (225 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.6% expected score (102 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Continuations (1)
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation
16.6%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line scores 38.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 37.9% and 39.3% — from 13K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
13K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, White wins 36.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 59.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.6%. It rests on 13K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.2% (353 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 38.4% in Blitz (8.1K games) against 37.7% in Rapid (2.2K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 34.5%, draws 2.1% and loses 63.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.6%. It rests on 255 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 33.3%, draws 1.7% and loses 65.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.2%. It rests on 955 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 32.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 65.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.5%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 34.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 62.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.7%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 38.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.5%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 44.8%, draws 7.9% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 40.5%, draws 33.4% and loses 26.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 353 Lichess games, which average 47 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 36.6%, draws 6.9% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.1%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 36.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 59.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.4%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 35.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 59.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.7%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 36.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 58.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.2%. It rests on 123 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 36.2% of its games and loses 59.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.