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Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit

1.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score45.1%Range (90% confident): 42.9% – 47.2%Based on 1.4K games
0%45.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.9% – 47.2%
Outcome Distribution
43.3%3.6%53.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nxc6
Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit
Analyzen=1.4K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a 45.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 42.9% and 47.2%), based on 1.4K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.4% · Breakpoint: 1400-1599

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 97.8 · Trap factor: -4.5 · n=1.4K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 24.1% · Rapid best · Bullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 21%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.6% win rate (39 games)
  • 1000-1199: 62.3% win rate (86 games)
  • 1200-1399: 59.9% win rate (138 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.8% win rate (138 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.0% win rate (122 games)
  • 1800-1999: 38.1% win rate (320 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.7% win rate (347 games)
  • 2200-2499: 28.3% win rate (159 games)
  • 2500+: 20.7% win rate (54 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (59%), worst in Bullet (31%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 31.1% win rate (267 games)
  • Blitz: 41.5% win rate (763 games)
  • Rapid: 55.2% win rate (360 games)
  • Classical: 58.6% win rate (13 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 71.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 37.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 66.2% expected score (48 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 64.6% expected score (67 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (50 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (56 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (69 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 69.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 35.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 39.0% expected score (238 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 36.2% expected score (49 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (211 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (87 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (51 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.9% expected score (78 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 23.0% expected score (54 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a 43.3% (90% CI: 41.1%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 62.3% win rate for white (86 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (55.2%) outperforms Bullet (31.1%) by 24.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a 59.9% (90% CI: 53.0%-66.6%) win rate for white, based on 138 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 42.9%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 138 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 45.6%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 122 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 0.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a 38.1% (90% CI: 33.7%-42.6%) win rate for white, based on 320 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a 39.7% (90% CI: 35.5%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 347 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a 28.3% (90% CI: 22.7%-34.3%) win rate for white, based on 159 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a 31.1% (90% CI: 26.5%-35.8%) win rate for white (267 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a 41.5% (90% CI: 38.6%-44.5%) win rate for white (763 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit has a 55.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-59.5%) win rate for white (360 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit is slightly favors black with a 43.3% (90% CI: 41.1%-45.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.