Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred
32K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.6%.
Measured over 32K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 32K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 32K
- Best context
- 53.9% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 46.9% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.0%
- Draws
- 5.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.8% at 0-999, 48.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (46 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 34.5% expected score (95 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (108 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (243 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (82 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (210 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (531 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (253 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (333 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (1,010 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (471 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (643 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (2,158 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (708 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (53 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,264 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (4,703 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (1,192 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (93 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (848 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (6,138 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (1,583 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (68 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (898 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (5,255 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (693 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (16 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (792 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (1,311 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred scores 50.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 50.6% — from 32K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 32K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Black wins 47.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 32K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.5% (8.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (21K games) against 48.2% in Rapid (5.0K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 36.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 59.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.9%. It rests on 179 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.6%, draws 2.0% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 434 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 46.0%, draws 7.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.6%, draws 5.2% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 37.1%, draws 8.1% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 253 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.6% of its games and loses 47.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.