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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense

684K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.5%

40%55%
Floor46.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.6%.

Measured over 684K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 684K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
684K
Best context
49.9% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
39.5% at 2000-2199 Classical
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.3% at 0-999, 46.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (4,841 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (8,013 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (4,150 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (12,919 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (22,334 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (6,742 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (182 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 72.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (20,690 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (51,028 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (14,852 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (412 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (23,953 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (77,471 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (28,810 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (1,261 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (20,879 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (85,764 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (37,778 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (1,931 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (16,038 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (75,403 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (34,503 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (1,864 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (11,563 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (50,435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (17,210 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (644 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (11,366 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (27,432 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (3,786 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (131 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (3,765 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (5,929 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (173 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (27 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Continuations (2)
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation
47.2%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation
45.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense scores 46.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.4% and 46.6% — from 684K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
684K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Black wins 44.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 684K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 48.8% (43K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.6% in Blitz (404K games) against 45.4% in Rapid (148K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 87K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 132K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 146K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 128K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.4%, draws 6.7% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.9%, draws 9.1% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 126K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 404K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.8%, draws 5.1% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 148K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.6%, draws 6.9% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.2% of its games and loses 51.3%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.