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Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit

490K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

57.6%

45%65%
Floor57.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.7%.

Measured over 490K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 490K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
490K
Best context
65.1% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
53.6% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.9%
Draws
3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +20.2% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.3% at 0-999, 63.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (5,805 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (5,146 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (2,126 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (12,582 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (16,042 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5,806 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (87 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (19,423 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (30,820 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (11,542 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 67.6% expected score (294 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (25,950 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (45,975 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (17,832 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (910 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (30,088 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (55,486 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (19,036 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (1,060 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (27,573 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (58,943 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (16,744 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (708 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (19,577 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (31,730 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (8,026 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 69.3% expected score (183 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.4% expected score (10,383 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 61.8% expected score (6,909 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 65.1% expected score (1,340 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 82.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (1,866 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 67.8% expected score (201 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.7% expected score (19 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit scores 57.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 57.5% and 57.7% — from 490K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
490K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit, White wins 56.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 490K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 60.7% (19K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 57.6% in Blitz (251K games) against 58.6% in Rapid (82K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 53.7%, draws 2.1% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 55.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 55.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 56.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 91K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 56.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 106K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 56.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 104K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 56.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.5%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 58.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 37.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.7%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 55.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 55.9%, draws 2.1% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 153K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 55.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 251K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 56.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 82K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 60.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 35.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.6%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Zukertort Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 56.0% of its games and loses 40.9%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.