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Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall

62K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.6%

45%60%
Floor53.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.0%.

Measured over 62K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 9.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 62K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
62K
Best context
57.7% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
51.7% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
90.7%
Draws
9.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.1% · Blitz best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 60.4% at 0-999, 54.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (40 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (91 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (135 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (308 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (487 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,049 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (2,034 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (410 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.3% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (2,155 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (7,556 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (1,251 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (118 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,795 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (14,804 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (2,677 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (171 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (3,191 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (13,228 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,961 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (75 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (2,855 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (3,154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (590 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (123 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall scores 53.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.3% and 54.0% — from 62K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
62K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall, White wins 49.0%, draws 9.3% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 62K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.9% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.7% in Blitz (41K games) against 54.4% in Rapid (7.0K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall has a sharpness score of 90.7 (decisive), meaning 90.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 54.2%, draws 1.7% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 256 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 54.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 911 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.3%, draws 7.1% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 35.7%, draws 39.1% and loses 25.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 51 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 46.8%, draws 11.8% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.8%, draws 7.8% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 41K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.4%, draws 12.0% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 39.7%, draws 27.0% and loses 33.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 544 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 49.0% of its games and loses 41.8%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.