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Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation

121K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.4%

40%55%
Floor45.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.6%.

Measured over 121K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 121K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
121K
Best context
47.5% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
34.8% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.2% at 0-999, 40.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,496 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (4,016 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (1,770 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (2,837 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (10,619 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (4,270 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (89 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (3,548 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (15,242 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (7,947 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (387 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (3,203 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (15,173 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (9,170 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (506 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (2,375 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (12,272 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (6,639 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (332 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,619 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (8,239 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (3,322 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.0% expected score (104 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (1,515 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (2,975 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 34.8% expected score (569 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 36.8% expected score (361 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 33.5% expected score (74 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (150 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation scores 45.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.2% and 45.6% — from 121K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
121K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 121K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 46.6% (7.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.5% in Blitz (69K games) against 45.1% in Rapid (34K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 44.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 57.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.1%. It rests on 847 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 35.4%, draws 13.0% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 172 Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.9%, draws 2.1% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 69K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.5% of its games and loses 52.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.