Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap
25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
71.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 72.1%.
Measured over 25K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 25K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 25K
- Best context
- 79.9% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 60.4% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.0%
- Draws
- 5.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.3% at 0-999, 70.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (86 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (130 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (59 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (256 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (370 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (123 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (393 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (1,135 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (355 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 66.3% expected score (624 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 65.8% expected score (2,102 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (809 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 66.9% expected score (40 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 67.9% expected score (726 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 73.5% expected score (3,581 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 72.7% expected score (1,672 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 74.1% expected score (117 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 72.7% expected score (647 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 76.0% expected score (3,756 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 76.0% expected score (2,112 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 73.6% expected score (162 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 73.6% expected score (480 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 79.0% expected score (2,267 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 77.9% expected score (1,162 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (42 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 74.8% expected score (474 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 79.9% expected score (722 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 79.0% expected score (185 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 69.8% expected score (92 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 80.4% expected score (66 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap scores 71.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 71.2% and 72.1% — from 25K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 25K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap, Black wins 69.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 25.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 71.6%. It rests on 25K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 78.1% (4.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 72.3% in Blitz (14K games) against 72.1% in Rapid (6.5K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap?
The Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 40.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 276 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 749 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 55.1%, draws 7.5% and loses 37.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 62.8%, draws 6.0% and loses 31.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.8%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 70.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 24.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.7%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 73.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 22.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 75.6%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 76.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 19.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 78.1%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 75.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 19.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 78.1%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 69.8%, draws 8.9% and loses 21.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 74.3%. It rests on 161 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 65.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 29.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 68.1%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 69.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 25.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 69.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 25.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.1%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 71.2%, draws 6.8% and loses 22.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 74.6%. It rests on 373 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 69.1% of its games and loses 25.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.