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Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation

50K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.4%

40%55%
Floor47.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.7%.

Measured over 50K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 50K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
50K
Best context
51.4% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
41.1% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.5% at 0-999, 43.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (462 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (777 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (188 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,165 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (3,071 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (720 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (1,777 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (5,614 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (1,982 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (73 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,859 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (6,632 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (3,091 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (119 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (1,242 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (5,519 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (2,611 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (915 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (3,536 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (1,237 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (670 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (1,991 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (496 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 17.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (926 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (1,956 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (206 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (545 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (259 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation scores 47.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.0% and 47.7% — from 50K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
50K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation, Black wins 45.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 50K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.3% (1.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.3% in Blitz (29K games) against 46.6% in Rapid (11K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.3%, draws 8.1% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 819 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 402 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.3% of its games and loses 50.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.