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Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation

348K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

43.7%

40%55%
Floor43.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.8%.

Measured over 348K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 348K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
348K
Best context
50.9% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
40.0% at 1800-1999 Classical
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.3%
Draws
4.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.9% at 0-999, 45.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (2,242 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (2,681 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (815 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7,198 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (12,006 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (3,307 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (47 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (12,104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (26,834 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (9,078 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (202 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (15,382 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (40,938 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (16,291 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (724 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (14,602 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (44,595 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (17,677 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (1,086 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (12,664 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (38,963 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (16,000 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (741 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (7,778 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (19,780 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (6,909 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (163 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (6,020 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (7,547 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.0% expected score (1,459 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (1,406 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (964 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation scores 43.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.6% and 43.8% — from 348K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
348K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation, Black wins 41.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 348K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 49.1% (5.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 43.8% in Blitz (194K games) against 44.2% in Rapid (72K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 48K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 40.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 78K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 40.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 39.4%, draws 5.9% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.5%, draws 7.0% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 37.4%, draws 8.7% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 41.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 79K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 41.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 194K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 72K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 42.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.3% of its games and loses 54.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.