TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation

348K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.7%Range (90% confident): 43.6% – 43.8%Based on 348K games
0%43.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.6% – 43.8%
Outcome Distribution
41.3%4.7%54.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bd6
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation
Analyzen=348K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 43.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.6% and 43.8%), based on 348K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.2% win rate (5,747 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.5% win rate (22,561 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (48,219 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.8% win rate (73,337 games)
  • 1600-1799: 40.6% win rate (77,962 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.4% win rate (68,373 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.4% win rate (34,632 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.5% win rate (15,062 games)
  • 2500+: 37.4% win rate (2,410 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Bullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.5% win rate (15 games)
  • Bullet: 41.2% win rate (79,396 games)
  • Blitz: 41.3% win rate (194,308 games)
  • Rapid: 41.4% win rate (71,573 games)
  • Classical: 42.7% win rate (3,011 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (2,242 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (2,681 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (815 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7,198 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (12,006 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (3,307 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (47 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (12,104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (26,834 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (9,078 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (202 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (15,382 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (40,938 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (16,291 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (724 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (14,602 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (44,595 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (17,677 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (1,086 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (12,664 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (38,963 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (16,000 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (741 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (7,778 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (19,780 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (6,909 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (163 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (6,020 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (7,547 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.0% expected score (1,459 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (1,406 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (964 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.9%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 348K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 55.0% win rate for white (78K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.4%) outperforms Classical (52.0%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 48K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 78K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 54.1%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 54.2%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.2%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 55.1%-55.7%) win rate for white (79K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.0%) win rate for white (194K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.4%) win rate for white (72K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.5%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation is statistically favors white with a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.9%-54.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.