Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation
5.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.3%.
Measured over 5.1K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.1K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 5.1K
- Best context
- 50.9% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 49.9% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.5%
- Draws
- 7.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.9% at 0-999, 39.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (42 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (99 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (47 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (76 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (195 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (86 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (97 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (425 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (163 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (145 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (577 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (271 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (32 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (176 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (855 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (276 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (140 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (678 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (142 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (251 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.6% expected score (110 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (65 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 19.0% expected score (13 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation scores 50.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 51.3% — from 5.1K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 5.1K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation, Black wins 46.3%, draws 7.5% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 5.1K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 50.2% (1.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (3.0K games) against 50.0% in Rapid (1.1K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a sharpness score of 92.5 (decisive), meaning 92.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 171 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 363 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 698 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 6.9% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.0%, draws 10.4% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 963 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.5%, draws 19.9% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 439 Lichess games, which average 58 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.6%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 933 Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.5%, draws 8.1% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.3%, draws 7.3% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.3% of its games and loses 46.2%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.