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Ruy Lopez: Closed

261K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.2%

40%55%
Floor47.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.3%.

Measured over 261K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 261K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
261K
Best context
49.2% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Worst context
42.8% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
94.1%
Draws
5.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.9% at 0-999, 42.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (535 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (366 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (144 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (1,640 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,712 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (462 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (3,163 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (4,947 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (1,444 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (5,617 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (11,417 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (3,724 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (192 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (8,452 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (23,658 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (7,051 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (567 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (11,727 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (42,525 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (11,990 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (888 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (12,719 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (44,635 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (11,436 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (534 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (10,290 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (25,248 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (4,488 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (105 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (5,338 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (3,902 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (448 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 36.8% expected score (74 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Continuations (10)
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense
50.3%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Martinez Variation
50.1%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Anti-Marshall
49.0%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation
52.3%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation
46.9%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Yates Variation
51.6%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System
50.0%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid
47.8%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Smyslov Defense
53.8%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Closed scores 47.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.0% and 47.3% — from 261K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
261K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 261K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.3% (67K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Closed scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.1% in Blitz (158K games) against 47.9% in Rapid (41K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.5%, draws 2.2% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.5%, draws 5.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.7%, draws 6.8% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 30.1%, draws 28.0% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games, which average 49 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 59K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 158K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.5%, draws 6.7% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 41K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.9%, draws 10.1% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.2% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.