Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation
65K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
58.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.6%.
Measured over 65K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 65K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 65K
- Best context
- 64.9% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 49.0% at 1000-1199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.1%
- Draws
- 4.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.8% at 0-999, 70.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (258 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (608 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (412 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (531 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,119 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (564 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (754 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (1,837 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (909 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (39 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (915 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (2,360 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (1,176 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (92 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (883 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (3,300 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (1,180 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (117 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (1,567 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (6,532 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (1,557 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (137 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (2,999 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (12,089 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (1,556 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (81 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (5,304 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.7% expected score (11,710 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (1,477 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.7% expected score (46 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.8% expected score (1,638 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.9% expected score (1,479 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.3% expected score (38 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation scores 58.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 58.0% and 58.6% — from 65K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 65K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation, White wins 55.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 65K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 65.0% (3.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 58.8% in Blitz (41K games) against 55.9% in Rapid (8.9K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 50.0%, draws 1.8% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 51.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 52.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 52.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 55.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 57.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 37.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.1%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 57.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.3%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 60.8%, draws 8.4% and loses 30.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.0%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 56.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 56.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 38.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.8%. It rests on 41K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 53.1%, draws 5.5% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 46.3%, draws 9.6% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 533 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 55.8% of its games and loses 39.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.