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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score45.5%Range (90% confident): 44.9% – 46.0%Based on 24K games
0%45.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.9% – 46.0%
Outcome Distribution
44.2%2.6%53.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Ng4
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation
Analyzen=24K
Avg Length26 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.6%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 45.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 44.9% and 46.0%), based on 24K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.5% · Classical best · Bullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.3% win rate (1,232 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.5% win rate (3,130 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.5% win rate (5,435 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.6% win rate (6,260 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.6% win rate (4,514 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.2% win rate (2,346 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.2% win rate (947 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.8% win rate (239 games)
  • 2500+: 40.7% win rate (12 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (52%), worst in Bullet (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 42.2% win rate (4,742 games)
  • Blitz: 44.3% win rate (11,722 games)
  • Rapid: 44.6% win rate (7,096 games)
  • Classical: 51.7% win rate (553 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (366 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (542 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (321 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.1% expected score (790 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.6% expected score (1,629 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (686 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (1,028 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (2,956 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (1,410 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (1,040 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (3,089 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (1,997 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (134 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (638 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (1,930 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (1,715 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (231 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (413 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (1,053 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (776 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (104 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (336 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (429 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (167 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 74.3% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (123 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (90 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 65.7% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 49.2% win rate for white (2.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (51.7%) outperforms Bullet (42.2%) by 9.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 41.0%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 20 moves with a 1.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 39.5% (90% CI: 38.1%-40.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 41.5% (90% CI: 40.4%-42.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 42.6%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.6%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 947 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 239 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 42.2% (90% CI: 41.0%-43.4%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.6%-45.1%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 43.6%-45.5%) win rate for white (7.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-55.2%) win rate for white (553 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.