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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.5%

45%60%
Floor54.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.1%.

Measured over 24K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 24K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
24K
Best context
61.0% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
47.1% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Average game length
26 moves
Games that end decisively
97.4%
Draws
2.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +16.3% · Breakpoint: 1600-1799

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.5% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.8% at 0-999, 55.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (366 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (542 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (321 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (790 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (1,629 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (686 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (1,028 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (2,956 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (1,410 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (1,040 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (3,089 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (1,997 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (134 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (638 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,930 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (1,715 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (231 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (413 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (1,053 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (776 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (104 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (336 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (429 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (167 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 25.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (90 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation scores 54.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.0% and 55.1% — from 24K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
24K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation, Black wins 53.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 59.6% (3.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.3% in Blitz (12K games) against 54.0% in Rapid (7.1K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 55.7%, draws 1.0% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 20 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 58.6%, draws 2.0% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.6%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 56.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 53.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 947 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 239 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 55.9%, draws 1.9% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 52.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 52.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 553 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 53.2% of its games and loses 44.2%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.