Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation
31K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.6%.
Measured over 31K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 31K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 31K
- Best context
- 51.6% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Worst context
- 44.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.9%
- Draws
- 6.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 44.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (89 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (46 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (29 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (179 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (232 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 33.3% expected score (97 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (285 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (469 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (220 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (552 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (1,090 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (476 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (39 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (897 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (2,839 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (925 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (106 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,290 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (4,936 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,640 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (160 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,351 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (4,974 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,602 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (75 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,820 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (2,970 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (654 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (730 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (340 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation scores 49.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.7% and 49.6% — from 31K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 31K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Black wins 46.1%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 31K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.2% (8.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.3% in Blitz (18K games) against 48.7% in Rapid (5.7K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 42.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 164 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 508 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 979 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 6.5% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.9%, draws 8.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.5%, draws 12.0% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.0%, draws 11.5% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 402 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.1% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.