Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation
5.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.5%.
Measured over 5.6K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.6K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 5.6K
- Best context
- 53.7% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.2% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.8%
- Draws
- 5.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 64.9% at 0-999, 52.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (27 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (29 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (56 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (53 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (132 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (60 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (118 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (373 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (112 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (173 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (905 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (264 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (18 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (259 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (1,153 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (310 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (303 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (563 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (118 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (217 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (287 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation scores 49.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 50.5% — from 5.6K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 5.6K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation, White wins 46.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 5.6K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.6% (528 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.4% in Blitz (3.5K games) against 47.6% in Rapid (927 games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 51.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 108 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 247 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 45.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 609 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 44.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 45.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 986 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 48.8%, draws 13.5% and loses 37.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 528 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 46.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 45.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 927 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, Showalter Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 46.8% of its games and loses 48.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.