Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation
25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.2%.
Measured over 25K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 11.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 25K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 25K
- Best context
- 55.6% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Worst context
- 43.6% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 43 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 88.9%
- Draws
- 11.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.2% at 0-999, 43.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (70 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (91 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (29 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (125 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (284 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (88 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (205 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (566 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (198 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (397 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (909 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (297 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (847 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (2,608 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (351 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (25 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,276 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (5,081 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (628 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,935 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (6,636 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (414 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (647 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (757 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (40 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation scores 49.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.2% and 50.2% — from 25K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 25K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation, Black wins 44.1%, draws 11.1% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 25K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 58.2% (499 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.5% in Blitz (17K games) against 55.0% in Rapid (2.1K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a sharpness score of 88.9 (moderately decisive), meaning 88.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.5%, draws 7.6% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 190 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 55.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 499 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 983 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.4%, draws 7.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.4%, draws 10.1% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.1%, draws 11.0% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.0%, draws 12.5% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.0%, draws 16.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 49 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.1%, draws 8.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.4%, draws 12.0% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.6%, draws 10.7% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.1% of its games and loses 44.7%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.