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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation

25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.7%Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 50.2%Based on 25K games
0%49.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 50.2%
Outcome Distribution
44.1%11.1%44.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Bd7
Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation
Analyzen=25K
Avg Length43 moves
Sharpness89%
Draw Rate11.1%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 49.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 50.2%), based on 25K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.9% win rate (41 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.5% win rate (190 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.6% win rate (499 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.6% win rate (983 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.4% win rate (1,624 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.4% win rate (3,831 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.1% win rate (6,997 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.0% win rate (8,995 games)
  • 2500+: 38.0% win rate (1,444 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (50%), worst in Blitz (43%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 44.1% win rate (5,517 games)
  • Blitz: 43.4% win rate (16,952 games)
  • Rapid: 49.6% win rate (2,051 games)
  • Classical: 49.7% win rate (84 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (70 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (91 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (29 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (284 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (88 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (205 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (566 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (198 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (397 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (909 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (297 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (847 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (2,608 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (351 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (5,081 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (628 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,935 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (6,636 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (414 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (647 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (757 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (40 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 25K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 45.5% win rate for white (9.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.5%) outperforms Classical (35.7%) by 11.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a sharpness score of 88.9 (moderately decisive), meaning 88.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 43 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 39.9% (90% CI: 34.2%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 190 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 39.3% (90% CI: 35.7%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 499 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 40.5%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 983 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.2%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 43.5% (90% CI: 42.2%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 10.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.9%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 11.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 12.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 43.5%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 16.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.6%) win rate for white (5.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.9%-45.1%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 39.6% (90% CI: 37.9%-41.4%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.7%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation is statistically balanced with a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.