Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System
8.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.9%.
Measured over 8.3K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.3K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 8.3K
- Best context
- 50.6% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 47.8% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 44 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.3%
- Draws
- 6.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 0-999, 57.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 72.0% expected score (19 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 38.7% expected score (34 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (48 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (88 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (165 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 33.7% expected score (23 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (198 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (830 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (164 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (406 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (1,830 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (517 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (36 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (661 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (2,214 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (430 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (253 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (228 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 69.8% expected score (39 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System scores 49.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.1% and 49.9% — from 8.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 8.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System, White wins 45.6%, draws 6.7% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 8.3K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.1% (520 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.1% in Blitz (5.3K games) against 49.8% in Rapid (1.2K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System has a sharpness score of 93.3 (decisive), meaning 93.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 44 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 286 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 44.5%, draws 6.3% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 45.7%, draws 8.0% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 48.4%, draws 9.3% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 520 Lichess games, which average 50 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 45.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 46.0%, draws 6.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 44.0%, draws 11.5% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Panov System is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 45.6% of its games and loses 47.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.