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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System

8.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.5%Range (90% confident): 44.6% – 46.4%Based on 8.1K games
0%45.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.6% – 46.4%
Outcome Distribution
39.6%11.7%48.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Re8
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System
Analyzen=8.1K
Avg Length42 moves
Sharpness88%
Draw Rate11.7%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 45.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.6% and 46.4%), based on 8.1K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · Rapid best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 28% → 17%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 28.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1000-1199: 29.1% win rate (69 games)
  • 1200-1399: 38.9% win rate (167 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.7% win rate (472 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.4% win rate (1,022 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.2% win rate (1,634 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.0% win rate (1,977 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.3% win rate (1,670 games)
  • 2500+: 17.3% win rate (1,060 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (42%), worst in Classical (28%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 35.5% win rate (1,988 games)
  • Blitz: 42.3% win rate (4,973 games)
  • Rapid: 35.5% win rate (1,046 games)
  • Classical: 28.1% win rate (75 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 34.7% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 22.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 34.0% expected score (89 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (168 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (245 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (56 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (221 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (639 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (154 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (256 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (1,046 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (303 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (345 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,314 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (303 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 40.5% expected score (352 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,190 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (121 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (533 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (421 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (93 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 68.8% win rate for white (69 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (54.1%) outperforms Classical (50.3%) by 3.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a sharpness score of 88.3 (moderately decisive), meaning 88.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 42 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 57.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-63.5%) win rate for white, based on 167 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 56.1% (90% CI: 52.3%-59.8%) win rate for white, based on 472 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 54.3% (90% CI: 51.7%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 48.5% (90% CI: 46.6%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 27.6% (90% CI: 25.4%-29.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 59 moves with a 55.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.1%-47.8%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 18.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.7%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System has a 54.1% (90% CI: 51.5%-56.6%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.5%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Zaitsev System is statistically favors white with a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.