Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation
245 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
39.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.9%.
Measured over 245 games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 20.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 245 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 245
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 61 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 79.9%
- Draws
- 20.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.0% at 1200-1399, 30.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 66.3% expected score (17 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (43 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 27.4% expected score (36 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 19.2% expected score (39 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (25 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation scores 39.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 34.9% and 44.9% — from 245 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 245+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation, Black wins 29.8%, draws 20.1% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.9%. It rests on 245 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 49.3% (69 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 43.4% in Blitz (128 games) against 41.8% in Rapid (53 games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation has a sharpness score of 79.9 (drawish), meaning 79.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 61 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 11.1%, draws 30.4% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 26.3%. It rests on 102 Lichess games, which average 71 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 38.2%, draws 10.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 128 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 29.8% of its games and loses 50.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.