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Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation

603 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score53.0%Range (90% confident): 50.3% – 55.6%Based on 603 games
0%53.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.3% – 55.6%
Outcome Distribution
22.6%60.8%16.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
18...Qh5
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation
Analyzen=603
Avg Length52 moves
Sharpness39%
Draw Rate60.8%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation has a 53.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.3% and 55.6%), based on 603 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +3.9% · Breakpoint: 2000-2199

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 20.9% · Blitz best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 14% → 7%

1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1400-1599: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • 1600-1799: 15.8% win rate (8 games)
  • 1800-1999: 58.8% win rate (47 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.4% win rate (91 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.8% win rate (75 games)
  • 2500+: 6.9% win rate (380 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (43%), worst in Bullet (12%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 11.9% win rate (255 games)
  • Blitz: 31.8% win rate (283 games)
  • Rapid: 24.0% win rate (63 games)
  • Classical: 42.9% win rate (2 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599———
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 64.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (62 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (224 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (115 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation has a 16.6% (90% CI: 14.2%-19.2%) win rate for white, based on 603 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 42.5% win rate for white (75 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (26.9%) outperforms Bullet (6.0%) by 20.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation has a sharpness score of 39.2 (drawish), meaning 39.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 52 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation has a 2.0% (90% CI: 1.0%-3.3%) win rate for white, based on 380 Lichess games. Average game length is 59 moves with a 91.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation has a 6.0% (90% CI: 3.8%-8.7%) win rate for white (255 Lichess games). Draw rate is 82.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation has a 26.9% (90% CI: 22.7%-31.3%) win rate for white (283 Lichess games). Draw rate is 41.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation is slightly favors black with a 16.6% (90% CI: 14.2%-19.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.