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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted

617K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.5%Range (90% confident): 45.4% – 45.6%Based on 617K games
0%45.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.4% – 45.6%
Outcome Distribution
37.0%17.0%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nxe4
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted
Analyzen=617K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness83%
Draw Rate17.0%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 45.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.4% and 45.6%), based on 617K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +0.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.7% · Rapid best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 41% → 9%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.0% win rate (35,727 games)
  • 1000-1199: 38.4% win rate (66,917 games)
  • 1200-1399: 38.3% win rate (74,433 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.0% win rate (66,514 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.9% win rate (67,735 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.2% win rate (84,913 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.5% win rate (76,132 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.0% win rate (46,282 games)
  • 2500+: 9.1% win rate (98,394 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (39%), worst in Bullet (32%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 35.1% win rate (54 games)
  • Bullet: 31.8% win rate (154,533 games)
  • Blitz: 39.4% win rate (297,286 games)
  • Rapid: 37.7% win rate (154,415 games)
  • Classical: 32.7% win rate (10,759 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (7,583 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (17,651 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (10,371 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (120 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (9,874 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (34,725 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (21,882 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (416 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (9,208 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (33,293 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (30,774 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.6% expected score (1,144 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 22.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (10,400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (28,555 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (25,148 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.4% expected score (2,400 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (12,996 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (35,207 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (17,505 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (2,026 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (16,039 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (48,773 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (18,303 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (1,798 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (15,678 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (45,529 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (14,276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (644 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (15,124 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (25,729 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (5,173 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (256 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (57,631 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (27,824 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (10,983 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (1,955 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 617K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 58.9% win rate for white (74K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.4%) outperforms Bullet (35.7%) by 15.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a sharpness score of 83.0 (moderately decisive), meaning 83.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 56.1% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 58.8% (90% CI: 58.5%-59.1%) win rate for white, based on 67K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 58.9% (90% CI: 58.7%-59.2%) win rate for white, based on 74K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 67K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 85K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 9.6% (90% CI: 9.4%-9.7%) win rate for white, based on 98K Lichess games. Average game length is 59 moves with a 81.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 35.7% (90% CI: 35.5%-35.9%) win rate for white (155K Lichess games). Draw rate is 32.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.7%) win rate for white (297K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.6%) win rate for white (154K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.9%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 21.2%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted is statistically favors white with a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.