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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted

617K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4...Nxe4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.5%

40%55%
Floor45.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.6%.

Measured over 617K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 17.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 617K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
617K
Best context
53.5% at 2500+ Classical
Worst context
34.4% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
83.0%
Draws
17.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +0.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.7% · Rapid best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.3% at 0-999, 50.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (7,583 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (17,651 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (10,371 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (120 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (9,874 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (34,725 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (21,882 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (416 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (9,208 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (33,293 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (30,774 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.6% expected score (1,144 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 22.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (10,400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (28,555 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (25,148 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.4% expected score (2,400 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (12,996 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (35,207 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (17,505 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (2,026 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (16,039 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (48,773 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (18,303 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (1,798 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (15,678 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (45,529 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (14,276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (644 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (15,124 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (25,729 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (5,173 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (256 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (57,631 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (27,824 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (10,983 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (1,955 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted scores 45.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.4% and 45.6% — from 617K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
617K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted, Black wins 37.0%, draws 17.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 617K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted performs best for Black at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 49.8% (98K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.5% in Blitz (297K games) against 43.2% in Rapid (154K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted has a sharpness score of 83.0 (moderately decisive), meaning 83.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 41.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 38.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 58.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.8%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 38.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 58.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.7%. It rests on 74K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 40.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 56.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 85K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.5%, draws 7.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 76K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.0%, draws 9.5% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 9.1%, draws 81.3% and loses 9.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 98K Lichess games, which average 59 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 31.8%, draws 32.5% and loses 35.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 155K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 39.4%, draws 12.1% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 297K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 37.7%, draws 10.8% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 154K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 32.7%, draws 21.2% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio Gambit Accepted is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 37.0% of its games and loses 46.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.