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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation

3.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score41.3%Range (90% confident): 40.0% – 42.8%Based on 3.3K games
0%41.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 40.0% – 42.8%
Outcome Distribution
38.7%5.2%56.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...a6
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation
Analyzen=3.3K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 41.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 40.0% and 42.8%), based on 3.3K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 40% → 31%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.1% win rate (197 games)
  • 1000-1199: 33.7% win rate (380 games)
  • 1200-1399: 35.0% win rate (540 games)
  • 1400-1599: 32.1% win rate (549 games)
  • 1600-1799: 40.3% win rate (434 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.4% win rate (497 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.1% win rate (336 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.3% win rate (323 games)
  • 2500+: 30.5% win rate (92 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (40%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 38.5% win rate (498 games)
  • Blitz: 40.3% win rate (1,584 games)
  • Rapid: 36.7% win rate (1,156 games)
  • Classical: 38.5% win rate (109 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 35.5% expected score (50 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (104 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 35.8% expected score (199 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 34.9% expected score (124 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 29.5% expected score (52 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (210 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.6% expected score (260 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.4% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 28.8% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 35.5% expected score (216 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (254 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (50 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (215 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (145 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (262 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (170 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (177 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (91 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (92 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (171 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.1% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 54.6%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 65.5% win rate for white (549 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (58.0%) outperforms Classical (56.6%) by 1.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 57.2% (90% CI: 51.4%-62.9%) win rate for white, based on 197 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 62.5% (90% CI: 58.4%-66.6%) win rate for white, based on 380 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 61.2% (90% CI: 57.8%-64.6%) win rate for white, based on 540 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 65.5% (90% CI: 62.1%-68.8%) win rate for white, based on 549 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 51.5%-59.4%) win rate for white, based on 434 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 50.4%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 497 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 42.2%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 336 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 39.6% (90% CI: 35.2%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 323 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 56.8% (90% CI: 53.1%-60.4%) win rate for white (498 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 52.2%-56.3%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 58.0% (90% CI: 55.6%-60.4%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 48.8%-64.2%) win rate for white (109 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation is statistically favors white with a 56.1% (90% CI: 54.6%-57.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.