Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation
3.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
41.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 42.8%.
Measured over 3.3K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.3K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.3K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.8%
- Draws
- 5.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.5% at 0-999, 46.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 35.5% expected score (50 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (104 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (43 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.3% expected score (53 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 35.8% expected score (199 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 34.9% expected score (124 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 29.5% expected score (52 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (210 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.6% expected score (260 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.4% expected score (17 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 28.8% expected score (48 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 35.5% expected score (216 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (254 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (31 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (50 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (215 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (145 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (48 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (262 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (170 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (56 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (177 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (91 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (92 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (171 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (57 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (49 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.1% expected score (30 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation scores 41.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 40.0% and 42.8% — from 3.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation, Black wins 38.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.3%. It rests on 3.3K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.9% (323 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 43.0% in Blitz (1.6K games) against 39.4% in Rapid (1.2K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 40.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 57.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 197 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 33.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 62.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.6%. It rests on 380 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 35.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 61.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.9%. It rests on 540 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 32.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 65.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.3%. It rests on 549 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 40.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 434 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 40.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 497 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 7.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 336 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.3%, draws 9.1% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 323 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 38.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 56.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 498 Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 40.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 36.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 58.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 38.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 109 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rosenthal Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 38.7% of its games and loses 56.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.