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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation

5.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.5%

45%60%
Floor52.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.5%.

Measured over 5.9K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.9K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
5.9K
Best context
59.4% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Worst context
51.1% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
94.5%
Draws
5.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.3% at 0-999, 65.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (255 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (198 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (78 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (248 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (177 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (147 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (441 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (219 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (178 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (592 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (323 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (160 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (735 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (363 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (111 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (539 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (263 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (78 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (259 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (130 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (103 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 69.6% expected score (19 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation scores 53.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 54.5% — from 5.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
5.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 5.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 57.7% (934 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.2% in Blitz (3.2K games) against 53.7% in Rapid (1.7K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 44.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 536 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 42.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 508 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 814 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 54.2%, draws 5.7% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 54.5%, draws 6.5% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 934 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 53.7%, draws 7.5% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 472 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 54.3%, draws 8.1% and loses 37.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 178 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 931 Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.4%, draws 6.5% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.7% of its games and loses 43.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.