Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid
28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.
Measured over 28K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 28K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 28K
- Best context
- 51.3% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 40.1% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 43 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.7%
- Draws
- 7.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 0-999, 44.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (29 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (147 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (156 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 67.0% expected score (31 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (240 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (741 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (136 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (534 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (2,788 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (454 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (60 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,050 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (6,534 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,060 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (87 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (1,499 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (8,389 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (934 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (33 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (773 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (1,783 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (100 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid scores 48.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.1% and 49.1% — from 28K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 28K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid, Black wins 44.9%, draws 7.3% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 28K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.1% (3.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.5% in Blitz (20K games) against 49.0% in Rapid (2.7K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid has a sharpness score of 92.7 (decisive), meaning 92.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 341 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.5%, draws 6.0% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.6%, draws 7.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 36.0%, draws 12.5% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 51 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.9%, draws 7.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.0%, draws 9.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.3%, draws 13.5% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 209 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.9% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.