Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation
1.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
44.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.1%.
Measured over 1.0M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.0M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.0M
- Best context
- 47.5% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 38.6% at 1400-1599 Classical
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.5% at 0-999, 40.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (17,110 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (36,713 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (15,569 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (181 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (29,719 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (77,616 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (32,154 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (705 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (33,163 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (110,470 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (53,762 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (1,695 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (33,636 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (113,463 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (64,010 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (4,015 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (26,702 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (101,573 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (55,236 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (4,210 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (20,048 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (79,670 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (37,514 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (2,007 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (12,447 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (38,579 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (15,381 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (477 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (9,437 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (10,344 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (3,050 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (49 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (2,384 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (606 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.5% expected score (154 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation scores 44.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.9% and 44.1% — from 1.0M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.0M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation, Black wins 42.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 1.0M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 44.9% (139K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 44.3% in Blitz (569K games) against 42.9% in Rapid (277K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 42.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 70K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 41.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 140K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 199K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 215K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 188K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 139K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 33.6%, draws 18.7% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 185K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 569K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 277K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 37.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 57.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.9%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.1% of its games and loses 54.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.