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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation

294K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.8%Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 46.9%Based on 294K games
0%46.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 46.9%
Outcome Distribution
44.9%3.7%51.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bc5
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation
Analyzen=294K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 46.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.6% and 46.9%), based on 294K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.0% win rate (10,654 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.2% win rate (23,569 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.9% win rate (39,917 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.8% win rate (54,535 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.1% win rate (64,293 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.0% win rate (60,022 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.0% win rate (30,764 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.1% win rate (9,507 games)
  • 2500+: 42.4% win rate (740 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in UltraBullet (29%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 29.4% win rate (7 games)
  • Bullet: 46.8% win rate (54,770 games)
  • Blitz: 45.0% win rate (165,868 games)
  • Rapid: 43.3% win rate (69,910 games)
  • Classical: 40.9% win rate (3,446 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (2,594 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (5,318 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (2,716 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (5,316 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (12,414 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (5,705 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (130 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (7,346 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (22,287 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (9,991 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (293 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (9,642 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (29,296 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (14,776 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (820 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (10,515 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (36,494 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (16,154 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (1,128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (9,760 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (36,024 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (13,487 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (751 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (5,935 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (18,542 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (6,009 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (278 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (3,150 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (5,302 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (1,035 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (512 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (191 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (37 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 294K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (24K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (53.8%) outperforms Bullet (50.9%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 64K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 740 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.3%) win rate for white (55K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.4%) win rate for white (166K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.7%) win rate for white (70K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.4%-55.2%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.