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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation

294K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.8%

40%55%
Floor46.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.9%.

Measured over 294K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 294K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
294K
Best context
51.3% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
42.1% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 46.3%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (2,594 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (5,318 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (2,716 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (5,316 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (12,414 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (5,705 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (130 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (7,346 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (22,287 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (9,991 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (293 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (9,642 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (29,296 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (14,776 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (820 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (10,515 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (36,494 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (16,154 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (1,128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (9,760 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (36,024 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (13,487 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (751 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (5,935 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (18,542 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (6,009 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (278 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (3,150 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (5,302 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (1,035 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (512 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (191 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (37 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation scores 46.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.6% and 46.9% — from 294K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
294K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 294K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 47.3% (31K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.9% in Blitz (166K games) against 45.5% in Rapid (70K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 64K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 42.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 740 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 55K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 166K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 70K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Graz Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.9% of its games and loses 51.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.