Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation
84K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.6%.
Measured over 84K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 84K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 84K
- Best context
- 55.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 42.4% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.1% at 0-999, 46.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (1,306 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (2,079 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (1,000 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (2,320 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (5,246 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (1,743 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (39 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (2,767 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (9,135 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (3,391 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.4% expected score (94 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (3,083 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (9,475 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (4,620 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (217 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,895 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (7,388 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (4,076 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (256 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (1,889 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (5,652 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (2,745 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (136 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,159 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (4,066 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (1,304 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.2% expected score (27 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (805 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (3,167 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (896 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (938 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,143 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.1% expected score (34 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation scores 46.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.0% and 46.6% — from 84K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 84K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 84K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.7% (4.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.7% in Blitz (47K games) against 43.5% in Rapid (20K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.4%, draws 6.5% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 47.3%, draws 7.6% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 47K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 37.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.3%. It rests on 784 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.1% of its games and loses 51.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.