Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense
75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.
Measured over 75K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 22.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 75K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 75K
- Best context
- 53.6% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 47.0% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 46 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 77.1%
- Draws
- 22.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.6% at 0-999, 50.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (19 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (16 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (57 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (47 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (143 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (167 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (82 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (429 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (706 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (245 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (21 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (1,203 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (2,897 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (591 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (72 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,281 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (8,057 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (1,797 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (238 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (3,362 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (12,850 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (3,102 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (273 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (5,243 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (11,548 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (2,007 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (85 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (7,910 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (7,330 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,776 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (368 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense scores 49.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.2% and 49.8% — from 75K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 75K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense, Black wins 38.0%, draws 22.9% and loses 39.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 75K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.5% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.3% in Blitz (44K games) against 50.8% in Rapid (9.6K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a sharpness score of 77.1 (drawish), meaning 77.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 46 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 133 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 400 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.3%, draws 7.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.9%, draws 9.2% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.6%, draws 10.2% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.4%, draws 12.4% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 16.5%, draws 64.9% and loses 18.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 59 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 34.9%, draws 28.6% and loses 36.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 39.5%, draws 19.6% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 44K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 38.7%, draws 24.2% and loses 37.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 33.4%, draws 38.1% and loses 28.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 38.0% of its games and loses 39.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.