Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.7%.
Measured over 18K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 71.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 18K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 18K
- Best context
- 54.9% at 2500+ Rapid
- Worst context
- 50.3% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 56 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 28.9%
- Draws
- 71.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 0-999, 52.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (36 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 82.9% expected score (32 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 65.6% expected score (21 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (99 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 74.7% expected score (37 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (71 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (272 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (77 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 89.4% expected score (15 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (160 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (642 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (231 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (333 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (956 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (218 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (7,371 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (5,476 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (1,744 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (209 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall scores 52.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.8% and 52.7% — from 18K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 18K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall, Black wins 16.6%, draws 71.1% and loses 12.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 18K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 74.4% (89 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.5% in Blitz (7.5K games) against 56.1% in Rapid (2.4K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a sharpness score of 28.9 (drawish), meaning 28.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 56 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 57.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 36.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.9%. It rests on 160 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.1%, draws 9.0% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 435 Lichess games, which average 47 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.9%, draws 11.0% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 50 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.0%, draws 12.2% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 51 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 9.7%, draws 84.5% and loses 5.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 57 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 11.3%, draws 80.7% and loses 8.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 19.4%, draws 64.1% and loses 16.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 25.6%, draws 60.9% and loses 13.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 20.2%, draws 72.6% and loses 7.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 258 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 16.6% of its games and loses 12.2%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.