Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation
3.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.2%.
Measured over 3.0K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.0K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.0K
- Best context
- 51.5% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 48.5% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 41 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.1%
- Draws
- 6.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 42.9%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (37 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (73 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 62.1% expected score (90 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 66.4% expected score (29 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (70 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (283 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (52 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (100 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (560 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (64 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (140 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (706 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (72 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (139 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (407 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation scores 50.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.2% and 52.2% — from 3.0K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.0K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation, Black wins 47.2%, draws 6.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 3.0K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 61.8% (143 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.7% in Blitz (2.2K games) against 51.8% in Rapid (258 games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 106 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 59.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 36.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.8%. It rests on 143 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 409 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 730 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.0%, draws 6.5% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 926 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.5%, draws 12.6% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 556 Lichess games, which average 47 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.4%, draws 6.7% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 516 Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.1%, draws 11.4% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 258 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.2% of its games and loses 45.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.