TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation

63K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.4%Range (90% confident): 47.1% – 47.8%Based on 63K games
0%47.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.1% – 47.8%
Outcome Distribution
45.0%4.7%50.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Bb7
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation
Analyzen=63K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 47.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.1% and 47.8%), based on 63K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.2% win rate (1,589 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.6% win rate (4,595 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.0% win rate (7,611 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.6% win rate (9,510 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.1% win rate (9,152 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.2% win rate (9,743 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.7% win rate (9,746 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.9% win rate (8,483 games)
  • 2500+: 36.7% win rate (2,571 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.6% win rate (12 games)
  • Bullet: 45.5% win rate (15,133 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (36,278 games)
  • Rapid: 43.2% win rate (11,022 games)
  • Classical: 38.7% win rate (555 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (664 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (744 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (180 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (1,584 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (2,366 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (640 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (2,130 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (4,011 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (1,434 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (2,321 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (4,734 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (2,342 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (108 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (1,793 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (4,824 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (2,387 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (147 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,719 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (5,985 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (1,888 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (151 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (1,837 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (6,435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,401 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (73 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,936 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (5,925 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (596 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (1,149 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (1,254 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 63K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 55.5% win rate for white (9.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.1%) outperforms Classical (51.7%) by -0.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 50.5%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.8%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.3%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 54.7%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.3%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.3%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 9.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 40.8%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 20.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.0%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.4%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.9%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-55.1%) win rate for white (555 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.6%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Arkhangelsk Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.