39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 48.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.5% and 49.3%), based on 39K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 45%
Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 39K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 55.8% win rate for white (406 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (50.4%) outperforms Classical (50.3%) by 0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 55.8% (90% CI: 51.8%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 406 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.0%) win rate for white (7.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.3%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.5%) win rate for white (5.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 44.8%-55.9%) win rate for white (220 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.