Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense
39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.3%.
Measured over 39K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 39K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 39K
- Best context
- 54.3% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.3% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.6%
- Draws
- 5.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.3% at 0-999, 48.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (157 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (194 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (52 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (434 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (617 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (150 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (645 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (1,753 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (460 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (878 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (2,698 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (1,027 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (38 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (654 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (2,759 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (1,140 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (66 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (522 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (3,447 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (1,095 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (58 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (668 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (5,292 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (870 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (30 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (1,819 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (5,948 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (554 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (2,103 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (3,001 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (43 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense scores 48.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.5% and 49.3% — from 39K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 39K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 39K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.6% (6.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.4% in Blitz (26K games) against 47.0% in Rapid (5.4K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 42.6%, draws 1.6% and loses 55.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 406 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.8%, draws 1.9% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.5%, draws 6.3% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.2%, draws 6.6% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.7%, draws 8.8% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.4%, draws 5.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 44.0%, draws 5.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 220 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.2% of its games and loses 48.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.