243 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Center Attack, Basque Gambit has a 47.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 41.9% and 52.4%), based on 243 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 71%
Best in Rapid (60%), worst in Bullet (39%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Center Attack, Basque Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 243 rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Center Attack, Basque Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.8% win rate for white (123 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (57.8%) outperforms Blitz (49.2%) by 8.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Center Attack, Basque Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Center Attack, Basque Gambit has a 55.8% (90% CI: 48.5%-63.1%) win rate for white, based on 123 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Center Attack, Basque Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 42.5%-55.9%) win rate for white (148 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Center Attack, Basque Gambit is slightly favors black with a 51.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-56.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.